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Global Economy

Read an interesting article in The Wall Street Journal today. The question was - “When did the US recession start and when will it end?” Haha…as if I know! Or for matter, as if even they know!

But nonetheless, what’s the harm in discussing what the whole freaking world is discussing (most of them, without knowing the R of Recession)!

About the start of recession, I agree with what the ‘analysts’ had to say - it probably started somewhere in the first quarter… but of course was detected much later!

Now the bigger question is when will it end? According to National Bureau of Economic Research, in the last 16 periods of economic contractions in the U.S., the average recovery period has been 13 months. Taking this and the halfway-rule in account, it means that this should be a good time to enter the stock market! But only if it was so simple…. Two complications still remain. A - No one is certain that recession did actually start in the first quarter and B - Doesn’t this look like a worse-than-average recession? And if it is so, it might not recover in the average period of 13 months. It might take 2 years or 3 years…who knows!

Lets see what Mr. Obama has on his mind! Btw, another article also says that Barack Obama is not very favorable for the free trade and if he starts opposing it, it can be a real danger for us and other Asian countries…

Well… lets see what ‘CHANGES’ await us!

What do you think?





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